BANK OF FINLAND . BULLETIN
(30.05.2008)
Numero
1Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2008
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074430Tiivistelmä
PREFACE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 13
Housing prices 14
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 15
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 17
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 19
SUPPLY 21
Output 21
Employment and labour 22
Productivity and capital 24
Box 3. Output gap estimates 26
Box 4. Employment and hours worked in the Nordic countries 29
DEMAND 31
Private consumption 31
General government 33
Investment 36
World economy and external demand 37
Export markets and export prices 40
Foreign trade 42
Current account 43
COSTS AND PRICES 45
Labour costs 45
Raw material prices 47
Import prices 45
Domestic producer prices 49
Consumer prices 51
Box 5. Bonus schemes and local bargaining gaining in importance 55
Box 6. Households' inflation expectations 57
RISK ASSESSMENT 59
International economy 59
Domestic economy 60
Alternative scenario: the impact on Finland of a stronger-than-forecast deterioration in the international economy 63
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 66
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 68
Forecast tables T1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 13
Housing prices 14
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 15
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 17
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 19
SUPPLY 21
Output 21
Employment and labour 22
Productivity and capital 24
Box 3. Output gap estimates 26
Box 4. Employment and hours worked in the Nordic countries 29
DEMAND 31
Private consumption 31
General government 33
Investment 36
World economy and external demand 37
Export markets and export prices 40
Foreign trade 42
Current account 43
COSTS AND PRICES 45
Labour costs 45
Raw material prices 47
Import prices 45
Domestic producer prices 49
Consumer prices 51
Box 5. Bonus schemes and local bargaining gaining in importance 55
Box 6. Households' inflation expectations 57
RISK ASSESSMENT 59
International economy 59
Domestic economy 60
Alternative scenario: the impact on Finland of a stronger-than-forecast deterioration in the international economy 63
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 66
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 68
Forecast tables T1