Determinants of long-term unemployment in early adulthood : a Finnish birth cohort study
Lallukka, Tea; Kerkelä, Martta; Ristikari, Tiina; Merikukka, Marko; Hiilamo, Heikki; Virtanen, Marianna; Øverland, Simon; Gissler, Mika; Halonen, Jaana I. (2019-05-16)
Tea Lallukka, Martta Kerkelä, Tiina Ristikari, Marko Merikukka, Heikki Hiilamo, Marianna Virtanen, Simon Øverland, Mika Gissler, Jaana I. Halonen, Determinants of long-term unemployment in early adulthood: A Finnish birth cohort study, SSM - Population Health, Volume 8, 2019, 100410, ISSN 2352-8273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100410
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe202003319828
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
Cumulative contributions of social and health-related determinants to long-term unemployment during early working life among young adults are poorly understood. Therefore, we used four cumulative indices of both parental and own social and health-related determinants of such unemployment among a cohort which comprised a complete census of children born in Finland in 1987. The cohort participants were registered in the Medical Birth Register, and they were followed-up through 2015 (N = 46 521). We calculated predicted probabilities for long-term unemployment (> 12 months) when participants were 25–28 years. Moreover, we examined whether the associations differed by unemployment at the municipal level.
During the follow-up, 4.5% of women and 7.1% of men experienced long-term unemployment. All cumulative indices of parental and own social and health-related determinants predicted the probability of long-term unemployment. The greatest probabilities were observed for own social determinants, both in municipalities with high and low unemployment although the probabilities were higher in the high-unemployment municipalities. Of the individual determinants, poor school performance showed the strongest association with long-term unemployment among women (OR 6.65, 95% CI 5.21–8.55) and men (OR 3.70, 95% CI 2.96–4.67), after adjusting for other own social determinants. The results highlight the importance of life course social equality in the prevention of long-term unemployment in early adulthood.
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