Russian foreign trade after four months of war in Ukraine
Simola, Heli (09.09.2022)
Numero
5/2022Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2022
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202209091354Tiivistelmä
This brief examines the development of Russia’s trade flows in the March-June period following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia ceased publication of foreign trade statistics after the war broke out, so we utilize the trade statistics of Russia’s major trading partners. We find that Russia’s imports declined substantially in the period with the country struggling to find alternative import sources. On the other hand, Russian export revenues increased post-invasion due to high commodity prices, the lag in transition periods for EU import restrictions and higher export volumes going to other markets. Russian industrial output reflects a shift in foreign trade. High-tech industries reliant on imported inputs contracted, while output remained robust for some export-oriented industries. The first months of war show sanctions took an increasing toll on the Russian economy, seriously eroding the country’s long-term growth potential.
Sisällysluettelo
Contents .....2
Abstract .....3
1. Introduction.....4
2. Trade sanctions imposed on Russia .....4
2.1 Sanctions on exports to Russia.....5
2.2 Sanctions on imports from Russia .....5
3. Russian imports and production.....6
3.1 Aggregate imports.....6
3.2 Technology imports .....7
3.3 Alternative import schemes .....8
3.4 Russian production in higher-technology sectors....9
4. Russian exports and production .....10
4.1 Aggregate exports.....10
4.2 Exports of key commodities .....11
4.3 Russian production in export-intensive industries......13
5. Concluding remarks.....14
References.....16
Abstract .....3
1. Introduction.....4
2. Trade sanctions imposed on Russia .....4
2.1 Sanctions on exports to Russia.....5
2.2 Sanctions on imports from Russia .....5
3. Russian imports and production.....6
3.1 Aggregate imports.....6
3.2 Technology imports .....7
3.3 Alternative import schemes .....8
3.4 Russian production in higher-technology sectors....9
4. Russian exports and production .....10
4.1 Aggregate exports.....10
4.2 Exports of key commodities .....11
4.3 Russian production in export-intensive industries......13
5. Concluding remarks.....14
References.....16