Leverage dynamics and the burden of debt
Juselius, Mikael; Drehmann, Mathias (01.04.2020)
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Volyymi
82Numero
2
2020
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202003202046Tiivistelmä
In addition to leverage, the debt service burden of households and firms is an important link between financial and real developments at the aggregate level. Using US data from 1985 to 2017, we find that the debt service burden has sizeable negative effects on expenditure. Its interplay with leverage also explains several data puzzles, including the lack of above trend output growth during credit booms and the severity of ensuing recessions, without appealing to large shocks or nonlinearities. Estimating the model with data up to 2005, it predicts credit and expenditure paths that closely match actual developments before and during the Great Recession.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2016 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201604051073