Economic Survey : Winter 2023
Lataukset:
Valtiovarainministeriö
19.12.2023
Julkaisusarja:
Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2023:96Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-456-1Tiivistelmä
The increase in prices and interest rates has reduced household consumption and investment. The Finnish economy will contract by 0.5% in 2023. In 2024, slowing inflation and a downward turn in interest rates, combined with moderately strong household income growth, will increase household disposable income. GDP will grow by 0.7% in 2024. Growth in consumption and investments will pick up in 2025 and the economy will grow by 2.0%. In 2026, growth will be 1.6%. Employment will fall slightly in 2024, but will increase from 2025 onwards. In 2026, the employment rate for people aged 15-64 will be close to 75% and the unemployment rate 6.6%.
The general government deficit will be 2.5% of GDP in 2023. The deficit will grow to 3.5% in 2024, driven by weak economic and employment growth and slow growth in tax revenue. The general government deficit will improve to around 3.0% of GDP in the following years as the Government’s adjustment measures start to have an effect and the economy and employment begin to grow towards the end of the outlook period. The central government deficit will remain substantial throughout the outlook period, and local government deficits are not expected to improve. Due to the central government and local government deficits as well as slow economic growth, the debt ratio will continue to increase, and it is not on track to decline given the foreseeable economic development.
Press release: Finland’s economy will turn to growth after the recession
The general government deficit will be 2.5% of GDP in 2023. The deficit will grow to 3.5% in 2024, driven by weak economic and employment growth and slow growth in tax revenue. The general government deficit will improve to around 3.0% of GDP in the following years as the Government’s adjustment measures start to have an effect and the economy and employment begin to grow towards the end of the outlook period. The central government deficit will remain substantial throughout the outlook period, and local government deficits are not expected to improve. Due to the central government and local government deficits as well as slow economic growth, the debt ratio will continue to increase, and it is not on track to decline given the foreseeable economic development.
Press release: Finland’s economy will turn to growth after the recession