Economic Survey : Autumn 2023
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Lataukset:
Valtiovarainministeriö
09.10.2023
Julkaisusarja:
Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2023:67Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-443-1Tiivistelmä
The increase in prices and interest rates has reduced household consumption and investment. The Finnish economy will not grow in 2023 compared to the previous year. In 2024, the rise in prices will be slower than the growth of household incomes, and interest rates will no longer increase. Improving household purchasing power will increase consumption, and Finland’s GDP will grow by 1.2%. However, the weak situation in the construction sector will continue to dampen economic growth. The investment outlook is otherwise bright, with the large number of wind power investment plans being particularly significant. In 2025, growth will accelerate to 1.8% as domestic demand is driven by both consumption growth and investment. Employment will briefly decline this year but return to growth from next year onwards. In 2025, the employment rate is projected to be 74.3% and the unemployment rate 7%.
The general government deficit will be 2.4% of GDP in 2023 and, in spite of the adjustment measures decided on by the Government, the deficit will widen to 3% in 2024 and 2025. The general government deficit will subsequently decrease slightly towards the end of the outlook period as economic growth accelerates and the Government’s measures will start to have an effect. Among the subsectors, the largest deficit is in central government, where no significant improvement is anticipated during the outlook period. Furthermore, barring measures taken by the wellbeing services counties or municipalities themselves, the local government deficit will widen towards the end of the outlook period. Social security funds will be in surplus.
In spite of the adjustment measures, the general government debt ratio will gradually increase during the outlook period. The debt ratio will be kept on an upward trajectory thereafter by the combined substantial deficits in central government and local government, the ageing of the population and rising debt servicing costs.
Press release: Finland’s economy will be in recession in the latter part of the year, with construction being particularly hard hit – growth is expected again next year
The general government deficit will be 2.4% of GDP in 2023 and, in spite of the adjustment measures decided on by the Government, the deficit will widen to 3% in 2024 and 2025. The general government deficit will subsequently decrease slightly towards the end of the outlook period as economic growth accelerates and the Government’s measures will start to have an effect. Among the subsectors, the largest deficit is in central government, where no significant improvement is anticipated during the outlook period. Furthermore, barring measures taken by the wellbeing services counties or municipalities themselves, the local government deficit will widen towards the end of the outlook period. Social security funds will be in surplus.
In spite of the adjustment measures, the general government debt ratio will gradually increase during the outlook period. The debt ratio will be kept on an upward trajectory thereafter by the combined substantial deficits in central government and local government, the ageing of the population and rising debt servicing costs.
Press release: Finland’s economy will be in recession in the latter part of the year, with construction being particularly hard hit – growth is expected again next year