Economic Survey : Spring 2023
Valtiovarainministeriö
23.03.2023
Julkaisusarja:
Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2023:25Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-214-7Julkaisun muut kieliversiot:
SuomeksiTiivistelmä
Finland’s GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in 2023. Private consumption will decline as rapidly rising prices and interest rates reduce the real disposable income of households. Inflation will slow and income growth will accelerate in 2024. Consequently, GDP growth will recover to 1.3% and 1.6% respectively in 2024 and 2025. The employment situation will decline slightly in 2023, only to improve again starting from 2024. The employment rate is projected to rise to 74.2% by 2025. GDP growth in 2026–2027 is projected to be faster than the potential economic growth rate at approximately 1.5% per year.
The general government deficit has improved considerably, driven by fast nominal growth and the growth of employment. The deficit will begin to grow anew in 2023 as the growth of tax revenue slows and general government expenditure increases quickly. The widening deficits and slowing nominal growth will see the general government debt ratio increase throughout the outlook period. The debt ratio will be kept on an upward trajectory in the near future by substantial deficits in central government and local government, higher debt servicing costs and slow economic growth.
The general government deficit has improved considerably, driven by fast nominal growth and the growth of employment. The deficit will begin to grow anew in 2023 as the growth of tax revenue slows and general government expenditure increases quickly. The widening deficits and slowing nominal growth will see the general government debt ratio increase throughout the outlook period. The debt ratio will be kept on an upward trajectory in the near future by substantial deficits in central government and local government, higher debt servicing costs and slow economic growth.