Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B.; Colgan, William T.; Fettweis, Xavier; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Wehrlé, Adrien; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Bjørk, Anders A.; Fausto, Robert S. (2022-08-29)
Box, J.E., Hubbard, A., Bahr, D.B. et al. Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 808–813 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
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https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2023062760510
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Abstract
Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 10³ km² ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.
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