Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole
Ran, Youhua; Cheng, Guodong; Dong, Yuanhong; Hjort, Jan; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren; Kang, Shichang; Tan, Meibao; Li, Xin (2022-10-13)
Ran, Y., Cheng, G., Dong, Y. et al. Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole. Commun Earth Environ 3, 238 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
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https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2023062057300
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Abstract
The damage to infrastructure caused by near-surface permafrost degradation is directly related to the well-being of 10 million people and the sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Third Pole of the Earth. Here we identify the economic damage caused by permafrost degradation to infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by integrating data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement model. We found that additional cost of approximately $6.31 billion will be needed to maintain the service function of current infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) by 2090. While 20.9% of these potential costs can be saved with strategic adaptations. Controlling global warming to below 1.5 °C will reduce the costs by $1.32 billion relative to the 2 °C target of Paris Agreement. These findings highlight the importance of mitigating global warming and of investment in the adaptation and maintenance of infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has a sparse population but is a climate hotspot.
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