Global Uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem (11.02.2021)
Numero
1/2021Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2021
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202102111109Tiivistelmä
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves self-identifcation via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is.