(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system
Verona, Fabio; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Drumond, Inês (11.04.2013)
Numero
4/2013Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2013
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20140807646Tiivistelmä
Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in which the bond spread is calibrated for normal and optimistic times. Our results suggest that the U.S. boom-bust was caused by the combination of (i) interest rates that were too low for too long, (ii) excessive optimism and (iii) a failure of agents to anticipate the extent of the abnormally favourable conditions. Keywords: DSGE model, shadow banking system, too low for too long, boom-bust JEL codes: E32, E44, E52, G24
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 9, Number 3, September 2013, Pages 73-117 ; http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q3a3.htm