Modeling long-term price development by using time-series auto-regression and expert judgments
Shnyrev, Denis (2009)
Shnyrev, Denis
HAAGA-HELIA ammattikorkeakoulu
2009
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-200911175528
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-200911175528
Tiivistelmä
The objective of the thesis was to create a long term forecast for pine roundwood timber assortment’s price in Finland for the years 2010 until 2020. The forecast’s purpose was to serve as helpful information in strategic business planning of Oy Karelkon LTD throughout the next decade.
The theoretical framework for this thesis was based on quantitative forecasting theory and in particular the theory of autoregressive model of order one, or the AR1 model. This model was applied in order to achieve quantitative forecasts based on previous historical price values of pine roundwood in Finland. The model was studied and implemented to the price of product of interest synchronically. The results that were achieved were quantifiable and represented with a table as well as a visual figure.
To expand the understanding of future price development, a qualitative investigation was implemented in the form of expert interviews. Experts in the field of forestry in Finland were questioned on their opinion concerning the development of pine roundwood price through-out the next decade. Additional information was gathered concerning the forestry industry of Finland including quantitative facts.
Main variables influencing the price of timber products were established and analyzed. The current position of the timber industry outcome effects of past years were studied and ana-lyzed.
The findings of this study are given in a form of a graph where the future development can be observed with a continuation of the previous time-series, as well as in discussion form based on the analysis of expert judgment.
The results of the quantitative forecasting techniques predicted a decline of the pine round-wood price throughout the next decade. With the application of the qualitative method that served as additional information, it was obvious that the initial AR1 forecast was somewhat too negative when concerning the second half of the decade. Several trends that affect the price development were outlined, and the general opinion of the experts was that the prices as well as the demand for the product will rise after 2015.
The theoretical framework for this thesis was based on quantitative forecasting theory and in particular the theory of autoregressive model of order one, or the AR1 model. This model was applied in order to achieve quantitative forecasts based on previous historical price values of pine roundwood in Finland. The model was studied and implemented to the price of product of interest synchronically. The results that were achieved were quantifiable and represented with a table as well as a visual figure.
To expand the understanding of future price development, a qualitative investigation was implemented in the form of expert interviews. Experts in the field of forestry in Finland were questioned on their opinion concerning the development of pine roundwood price through-out the next decade. Additional information was gathered concerning the forestry industry of Finland including quantitative facts.
Main variables influencing the price of timber products were established and analyzed. The current position of the timber industry outcome effects of past years were studied and ana-lyzed.
The findings of this study are given in a form of a graph where the future development can be observed with a continuation of the previous time-series, as well as in discussion form based on the analysis of expert judgment.
The results of the quantitative forecasting techniques predicted a decline of the pine round-wood price throughout the next decade. With the application of the qualitative method that served as additional information, it was obvious that the initial AR1 forecast was somewhat too negative when concerning the second half of the decade. Several trends that affect the price development were outlined, and the general opinion of the experts was that the prices as well as the demand for the product will rise after 2015.