Tracking trajectories in cyberspace to discover early warning signals
Eklund, Santtu (2020)
Eklund, Santtu
National Defence University
Operational art
Diploma thesis
General Staff Officer Course 59
2020
Julkinen
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2021060333415
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2021060333415
Tiivistelmä
This thesis is about the weak signals of the future cyber threats that armed forces may face. The research question of this study was: “what are the early warning signals material points out in search of the possible future cyber threats of the armed forces?”. The aim was to point out early warning signals in five trajectories. These trajectories were developed from the phenomena that were found in the first part of the research. The first part was conducted in the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg ending to a thesis titled “Shaping Single Signs into Significant Phenomena”.
The focus of the research was in the five phenomena: sensors, manipulation, speed, artificial intelligence and networking. These phenomena were developed into trajectories. Critical turning points were searched from these trajectories by linking them to single signals, connecting them together and assessing the development from the temporal aspect.
The key results of this research are five critical turning points in the trajectories. Two of them are related to the development and traceability of the artificial intelligence, one is about a new actor in cyberspace, one about the loss of control in networks and the last one is related to the sensor development.
These turning points are called early warning signals, according to weak signals analysis developed by Igor Ansoff. This research forms the second part of the weak signals analysis.
The research method was the Delphi survey. The group of respondents answered anonymously in three rounds producing material for the analysis. The research orientation was hermeneutical and subjective interpretation was emphasized in the research.
The results pointed out that the development of artificial intelligence has a strong effect to all other phenomena. It was possible to find logical trajectories in the five phenomena, but the temporal assessment of them was challenging. Evident connections and interdependencies between the trajectories were found and early warning signals were pointed out in them. The early warning signals crop up in the development phase of the phenomena with a growing number of problems. The five early warning signals may start to occur after the following couple of years.
The focus of the research was in the five phenomena: sensors, manipulation, speed, artificial intelligence and networking. These phenomena were developed into trajectories. Critical turning points were searched from these trajectories by linking them to single signals, connecting them together and assessing the development from the temporal aspect.
The key results of this research are five critical turning points in the trajectories. Two of them are related to the development and traceability of the artificial intelligence, one is about a new actor in cyberspace, one about the loss of control in networks and the last one is related to the sensor development.
These turning points are called early warning signals, according to weak signals analysis developed by Igor Ansoff. This research forms the second part of the weak signals analysis.
The research method was the Delphi survey. The group of respondents answered anonymously in three rounds producing material for the analysis. The research orientation was hermeneutical and subjective interpretation was emphasized in the research.
The results pointed out that the development of artificial intelligence has a strong effect to all other phenomena. It was possible to find logical trajectories in the five phenomena, but the temporal assessment of them was challenging. Evident connections and interdependencies between the trajectories were found and early warning signals were pointed out in them. The early warning signals crop up in the development phase of the phenomena with a growing number of problems. The five early warning signals may start to occur after the following couple of years.
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