Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes
Hyytinen, Ari; Meriläinen, Jaakko; Saarimaa, Tuukka; Toivanen, Otto; Tukiainen, Janne (2015-09-21)
Hyytinen, Ari
Meriläinen, Jaakko
Saarimaa, Tuukka
Toivanen, Otto
Tukiainen, Janne
Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus VATT
21.09.2015
All rights reserved
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-274-131-8
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-274-131-8
Tiivistelmä
We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between
candidates are resolved via lottery. We benchmark non-experimental RDD estimates
of personal incumbency advantage against the estimate produced by this experiment
that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is
no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, standard local linear RDD estimates
suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-correction and undersmoothing
procedures however bring the RDD estimate(s) in line with the
experimental estimate. Therefore, careful implementation of RDD can meet the
replication standard in the context of close elections. 'This version (September 21, 2015) replaces the November 20, 2014 version.'
candidates are resolved via lottery. We benchmark non-experimental RDD estimates
of personal incumbency advantage against the estimate produced by this experiment
that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is
no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, standard local linear RDD estimates
suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-correction and undersmoothing
procedures however bring the RDD estimate(s) in line with the
experimental estimate. Therefore, careful implementation of RDD can meet the
replication standard in the context of close elections. 'This version (September 21, 2015) replaces the November 20, 2014 version.'
Tutkimusteema
Local public economics, Kunnallistalous, Effectiveness of public services, Julkisten palvelujen vaikuttavuus
JEL
C210 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models, C520 - Model Evaluation and Testing, D720 - Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Avainsanat
Elections, experiment, incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design
Kokoelmat
- VATT Working Papers [164]